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Credit ratings – movers and potential for the Adria region - Path to a higher rating
Credit rating agencies focus on these 5 pillars: institutional, economic, external, fiscal and monetary factors. The rating is determined via a mix of qualitative and quantitative elements, considering the current situation as well as the outlook. The idea of this report is to highlight the movers of sovereign credit ratings and emphasize which policy moves would lift the ratings.
06.10.2023.
Banking sector report – 2023 profits – textbook example of monetary tightening effects
Banks profits are spiking in 2023, and this is not concentrated in Adria region but is rather an across-the-globe event. In this report we examine the performance of banks in the Adria region for the 1H 2023, interpret the very recent lending activity and interest rate movements, and provide outlook for the banks’ profits going forward.
28.09.2023.
Grocery retailers - Consistently through disruption
In this report we analyze the grocery retail industry in Adria region countries, with a special focus on how successful retailers were in navigating the high inflation environment. Report is based on a macroeconomic as well as a single firm-level look of the latest trends.
25.09.2023.
Vending machine industry - Behind the scenes of self-operated sales growth
In this report we dissect the vending machine industry in the Adria Region. We explore the reasoning behind the financial performance of some of the largest players in the region and also offer a broader industry context. We lay out the drivers, challenges and outlook for the industry.
18.09.2023.
Pharmaceutical industry - Strengthening foothold in Adria region
This industry report aims to analyze the performance of the Adria region’s pharmaceutical sector in 2022. The report will encompass both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects of the industry. In addition, report will briefly remark on topics such as medicine shortages and the repercussions of current geopolitical tensions in one of the Adria region’s most important markets – Russia.
14.09.2023.
Macro Quarterly 4Q 2023 - Spending fundaments keeping GDP alive
In this report, we confirm our GDP growth numbers (vs. the previous report) for all Adria region countries, with the rationale behind being that consumer fundamentals remained strong, and they have offset the deteriorated foreign demand environment.
08.09.2023.
Labour market report - New labour paradigm driving strong wage growth
Wages in Adria region are growing at the fastest pace in at least 10 years! Slovenia is the latest country in the region where the yoy gross wage growth rate entered into the double digit zone in 1H 2023, with gross wages elsewhere in the Adria region growing at a 10%+ yoy pace already since the 2H 2022.
31.08.2023.
Inflation report - Prices on a downtrend path
Adria region inflation rates stayed in downtrend in 2023 amid high 2022 base. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia are on the lower end, posting only 4.9% (Jun-23) and 5.7% yoy inflation in Jul-23, respectively. Croatia posted 8% in Jul-23, showing more persistence as the tourist season began, pushing up demand, while N. Macedonia’s rate slid into the one-digit zone recording 8.7% yoy in Jul-23. Serbia expressed the most stubborn inflation (driven by 21.9% growth in food prices), posting 12.4% yoy in the same period.
25.08.2023.
